Reality Check for 3/9/08 March 9th, 2008
“It’s all about the delegates.”
MSNBC: 1,366 Obama, 1,227 Clinton (+139)
CNN: 1,527 Obama, 1,428 Clinton (+99)
ABC: 1,577 Obama, 1,467 Clinton (+110)
CBS: 1,570 Obama, 1,460 Clinton (+110)
FOX: 1,578 Obama, 1,468 Clinton (+110)
BarackObama.com: 1,392 Obama, 1,226 Clinton (+156)
HillaryClinton.com: Results Not Listed
“It’s all about the popular vote.”
RCP: 13,006,033 Obama, 12,415,016 Clinton
“It’s all about the ability to win important states.”
2004 Presidental Election “Swing” States:
- Arizona (Clinton)
- Arkansas (Clinton)
- Colorado (Obama)
- Delaware (Obama)
- Florida (N/A)
- Iowa (Obama)
- Louisiana (Obama)
- Maine (Obama)
- Michigan (N/A)
- Minnesota (Obama)
- Missouri (Obama)
- Nevada (Clinton)
- New Hampshire (Clinton)
- New Mexico (Clinton)
- Ohio (Clinton)
- Oregon (N/A)
- Pennsylvania (N/A)
- Washington (Obama)
- West Virginia (N/A)
- Wisconsin (Obama)
Obama has won 9 out of the 15 that have had meaningful contests so far. Clinton has won 6 of 15.
“Dang, uh… It’s all about decisive victories? It’s all about clear mandates?”
Contests won by a margin of 20% or greater:
- Alaska (Obama)
- Arkansas (Clinton)
- Colorado (Obama)
- Democrats Abroad (Obama)
- District of Colombia (Obama)
- Georgia (Obama)
- Hawaii (Obama)
- Idaho (Obama)
- Illinois (Obama)
- Kansas (Obama)
- Louisiana (Obama)
- Maryland (Obama)
- Minnesota (Obama)
- Nebraska (Obama)
- North Dakota (Obama)
- Oklahoma (Clinton)
- South Carolina (Obama)
- Vermont (Obama)
- Virginia (Obama)
- Virgin Islands (Obama)
- Washington (Obama)
- Wyoming (Obama)
Contests won by a margin between 19% and 11%:
- Alabama (Obama)
- American Samoa (Clinton)
- Delaware (Obama)
- Maine (Obama)
- Massachusetts (Clinton)
- New York (Clinton)
- Rhode Island (Clinton)
- Tennessee (Clinton)
- Utah (Obama)
- Wisconsin (Obama)
Contests won by a margin of 10% or less:
- Arizona (Clinton)
- California (Clinton)
- Connecticut (Obama)
- Iowa (Obama)
- Missouri (Obama)
- Nevada (Clinton)
- New Hampshire (Clinton)
- New Jersey (Clinton)
- New Mexico (Clinton)
- Ohio (Clinton)
- Texas (Clinton)
By any metric you can possibly concoct, Obama is and has always been winning this primary season. Anything postulated in opposition to that is pure spin from the Clinton campaign, and the media is complicit by giving her a free pass to claim any kind of momentum whatsoever. If you replaced all instances of “Obama” with “Clinton” in the above post, and vice-versa, Obama would have been a complete Democratic Party pariah weeks ago.
Furthermore, any standard of measurement that relies on the notion of “big states” or “important states” is a logically fallacious conflation of the nomination process, in which all DNC delegates are awarded proportionately (specifically to preclude the idea of one state being more important than another,) and the general election, in which electoral votes are awarded winner-take-all by state. One candidate winning more votes than their Democratic rival in a particular state does not reflect in any remote way that candidate’s capacity to score a victory against the GOP in that state during the general election.
Mississippi votes in two days, and I would expect pledged delegates, popular vote, and average victory margin to lean even more in favor of Obama afterward.
